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<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>Apple:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>I ran into Woz at the airport a few weeks ago, it is hard to
imagine there is anyone nicer on the planet. He’d probably
drive me nuts being around him as he appears to have an even shorter attention
span than I do. But it would be a happy crazy. He embodies all the
wonder, trust of a child with nurturing nature of a good parent, and the “control”
gene was evidently left out of the guy. As you point out Jobs is a different
kind of person entirely, skills that would make the best con artist jealous
(from the initial NeXT to the initial iPhone presentation, he has pitched
bricks and gotten folks excited), a self confidence problem that drives a near
legendary cruelty streak, and one of the most focused people in the tech
industry. You could trust Woz with your life savings, you wouldn’t
be wise to trust Jobs with anything you couldn’t afford to lose. The
combination of the two of them created Apple, Woz couldn’t run a department
let alone a company but he was the kind of guy folks loved to work with and, as
you point out, it was technical skill that made the product. Jobs
can certainly manage but without the power to back up his personality he’d
get forced out and was once, but without his ability to pitch they probably
never would have gotten funded. He only survives now because he has
the power. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>The point is Apple wouldn’t exist without both of them
though I generally agree that Woz, and Bill Gates, were fundamentally right
with regard to where the industry was going, the thing is Jobs needs tight
control to function and he would have been less effective in an open Apple or a
Microsoft kind of company. He’d have been relegated to a marketing role
and likely fired when he overstepped and pissed off the wrong person or tried a
coup with insufficient backing. He is not a guy who can do coups and the
coup that got him the job came from the Apple board. You are
correct, both men are fundamentally flawed though I think of job heaven as
working with a guy like Woz and job hell as working for a guy like
Jobs. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>Kindle:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>I’m already emailing things to my Kindles and using them
(mostly the newer one now) instead of printing. I agree with
you clearly that ePaper will eventually replace paper. The bigger
issue is how long it will take. We really don’t need FAX machines
anymore and haven’t needed them for years yet I still have people asking
me for FAX numbers even if they use email to ask for them.
What is interesting about the Kindle is that, unlike the iPod, it is actually
designed to be a proof of concept. Amazon doesn’t want to
sell hardware they want to sell books, its purpose is to increase book sales by
making the purchase and use experience vastly more convenient. Both my wife
and I largely live off our Kindles now but they are truly at their
infancy. Too expensive by far as devices largely because of the cost of
the pre-paid WAN service expect them to drop to a fraction of their price in
about 5 years. Color is due within 2 years (and Apple has been cornering
the market on a type of flash memory that wouldn’t seem to work in MP3
players but might be ideal for a reader) and companies like Barnes & Noble
are now exploring this category. Flexible screens are coming as
well (ePaper by nature is flexible but tends to fatigue and you can’t
really fold it). What will likely make the difference is when
people start creating content just for the Kindle. Think dynamic
books that change based on what you like to read, for instance if you really
don’t like tragic endings your version of a book could end much better,
or for kids their names and the names of their friends could be the primary
characters and once they figure out motion you can, instead of imbedding static
pictures, put in motion shots. Finally, with advertising you can
show ads that actually match the reader’s profile. That means
fewer ads that have greater impact and the ability to subsidize the device and
content with advertising. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>With the early phases of a new technology developers mimic the
old, early cars didn’t look that different than carriages.
But, with time, companies start to think through the possibilities and it is
when those possibilities eclipse the previous technology, and a younger
generation takes over, that the world steps. I think we are 5 to 15 years
from this major step. If advertising drives it, sooner is more
likely (like the Internet), if it is text books, then it is a longer cycle and
even 15 years may be too aggressive. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>Rob Enderle<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>Enderle Group<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>Work: 408 272-8560<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>Cell: 408 832-6326<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>FAX: 408 904-5274<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>www.enderlegroup.com<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div>
<div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>
debate-bounces@whitestar.linuxbox.org
[mailto:debate-bounces@whitestar.linuxbox.org] <b>On Behalf Of </b>Alan Light<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Saturday, May 16, 2009 7:12 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> debate@whitestar.linuxbox.org<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [debate] throwing a few ideas out there<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>The
multi-thread commentary continues.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Brian Loe
wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><br>
>Jobs was the idea guy, without him Steve is still just a garage geek.<br>
>I know lots of these guys, but I'm no Jobs. I don't really like Jobs,<br>
>I don't think, and I've yet to meet a Mac I couldn't crash.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>To some
extent I agree. On the other hand, there are plenty of cutthroat business
types as well, and Woz might have teamed up with any of them. Perhaps
there were others like Woz who didn't find a good partner for the business end,
but there were certainly others like Jobs who didn't pick good partners for the
engineering end.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>About two
years ago I read Wozniak's autobiography, "iWoz", which I much
enjoyed. From reading the book, it is quite obvious that Jobs and Wozniak
both have major personality flaws . . . yet I am pretty sure I would enjoy
knowing Woz personally, and wouldn't enjoy knowing Jobs. This book
also gave me some perspective on their respective roles at Apple, and Apple's
role in the birth of the computer industry. The key to remember is that
it was the Apple II that made Apple and revolutionized the computer
industry. There were many hobbyist computers available at the time, but
the Apple II was the breakout hit. It may be self-serving hype, but
Wozniak claimed that what set the Apple II apart was the fact that it could be
easily expanded and that this allowed other companies to offer peripherals - to
the point that Apple was able to cut back on advertising, because every
computer mag had dozens of ads for peripherals that prominently mentioned the
Apple II.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Woz also
noted that he had played a pivotal role in the development of the Apple II, and
had specifically fought Jobs and other business types to spend the few
extra cents per computer that allowed them to be expanded. This story
checks out, because we know that his influence at Apple diminished afterwards,
that Apple pursued an all-proprietary business model, and that this
all-proprietary model drove them to the brink of bankruptcy despite having an
excellent product. The fact that the IBM/Microsoft duo prevailed
with a much inferior operating system but open hardware suggests that Wozniak's
assessment is fair.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>This all
suggests that it was Wozniak, not Jobs, who can claim primary credit.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><br>
>> Whether the Kindle will replace paper -<br>
<br>
>No. Might limit its use eventually but there are far more people out<br>
>there who print every thing the get in email to read than care to<br>
>spend 400 bucks on an electronic reader. Perhaps after a couple of<br>
>generations move through with cheaper, more widely accessible readers<br>
>available you will see a serious decline in the printed book. However,<br>
>I think the move will be to print-on-demand technologies. Something<br>
>I'm looking forward to.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>I have to
disagree. Except for specialty items and possibly receipts, I expect
paper to disappear. We are now seeing only the beginning of the end of
paper. Until the Kindle, there was no screen technology available that
was as easy to read or as portable as a book. Now there is, and I expect
the changes will gradually occur. However, it may require some better backup
programs and more open standards. The current combination of kludgy
backup programs, digital rights management, and unsophisticated users result in
lots of unnecessary printing. I expect this to change at some time in the
future as more knowledgeable users demand full access to their own property and
fast, easy-to-use backup programs. Trends are already heading that way.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><br>
>Sad though, the end of the 1st edition collector...<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>What I said
about "specialty products". . . ;-)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'>Alan<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p>
</div>
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