[debate] throwing a few ideas out there

[Rob Enderle]

Apple:

 

I ran into Woz at the airport a few weeks ago, it is hard to imagine
there is anyone nicer on the planet.   He'd probably drive me nuts being
around him as he appears to have an even shorter attention span than I
do.  But it would be a happy crazy.  He embodies all the wonder, trust
of a child with nurturing nature of a good parent, and the "control"
gene was evidently left out of the guy.   As you point out Jobs is a
different kind of person entirely, skills that would make the best con
artist jealous (from the initial NeXT to the initial iPhone
presentation, he has pitched bricks and gotten folks excited), a self
confidence problem that drives a near legendary cruelty streak, and one
of the most focused people in the tech industry.  You could trust Woz
with your life savings, you wouldn't be wise to trust Jobs with anything
you couldn't afford to lose.  The combination of the two of them created
Apple, Woz couldn't run a department let alone a company but he was the
kind of guy folks loved to work with and, as you point out, it was
technical skill that made the product.   Jobs can certainly manage but
without the power to back up his personality he'd get forced out and was
once, but without his ability to pitch they probably never would have
gotten funded.   He only survives now because he has the power.    

 

The point is Apple wouldn't exist without both of them though I
generally agree that Woz, and Bill Gates, were fundamentally right with
regard to where the industry was going, the thing is Jobs needs tight
control to function and he would have been less effective in an open
Apple or a Microsoft kind of company.  He'd have been relegated to a
marketing role and likely fired when he overstepped and pissed off the
wrong person or tried a coup with insufficient backing.  He is not a guy
who can do coups and the coup that got him the job came from the Apple
board.   You are correct, both men are fundamentally flawed though I
think of job heaven as working with a guy like Woz and job hell as
working for a guy like Jobs.   

 

Kindle:

 

I'm already emailing things to my Kindles and using them (mostly the
newer one now) instead of printing.    I agree with you clearly that
ePaper will eventually replace paper.   The bigger issue is how long it
will take.  We really don't need FAX machines anymore and haven't needed
them for years yet I still have people asking me for FAX numbers even if
they use email to ask for them.    What is interesting about the Kindle
is that, unlike the iPod, it is actually designed to be a proof of
concept.   Amazon doesn't want to sell hardware they want to sell books,
its purpose is to increase book sales by making the purchase and use
experience vastly more convenient.  Both my wife and I largely live off
our Kindles now but they are truly at their infancy.  Too expensive by
far as devices largely because of the cost of the pre-paid WAN service
expect them to drop to a fraction of their price in about 5 years.
Color is due within 2 years (and Apple has been cornering the market on
a type of flash memory that wouldn't seem to work in MP3 players but
might be ideal for a reader) and companies like Barnes & Noble are now
exploring this category.   Flexible screens are coming as well (ePaper
by nature is flexible but tends to fatigue and you can't really fold
it).   What will likely make the difference is when people start
creating content just for the Kindle.   Think dynamic books that change
based on what you like to read, for instance if you really don't like
tragic endings your version of a book could end much better, or for kids
their names and the names of their friends could be the primary
characters and once they figure out motion you can, instead of imbedding
static pictures, put in motion shots.   Finally, with advertising you
can show ads that actually match the reader's profile.   That means
fewer ads that have greater impact and the ability to subsidize the
device and content with advertising.   

 

With the early phases of a new technology developers mimic the old,
early cars didn't look that different than carriages.   But, with time,
companies start to think through the possibilities and it is when those
possibilities eclipse the previous technology, and a younger generation
takes over, that the world steps.  I think we are 5 to 15 years from
this major step.   If advertising drives it, sooner is more likely (like
the Internet), if it is text books, then it is a longer cycle and even
15 years may be too aggressive.  

 

Rob Enderle

Enderle Group

 

Work:  408 272-8560

Cell:     408 832-6326

FAX:    408 904-5274

 

www.enderlegroup.com

 

From: debate-bounces at whitestar.linuxbox.org
[mailto:debate-bounces at whitestar.linuxbox.org] On Behalf Of Alan Light
Sent: Saturday, May 16, 2009 7:12 AM
To: debate at whitestar.linuxbox.org
Subject: Re: [debate] throwing a few ideas out there

 

The multi-thread commentary continues.

 

 

Brian Loe wrote:

 


>Jobs was the idea guy, without him Steve is still just a garage geek.
>I know lots of these guys, but I'm no Jobs. I don't really like Jobs,
>I don't think, and I've yet to meet a Mac I couldn't crash.

To some extent I agree.  On the other hand, there are plenty of
cutthroat business types as well, and Woz might have teamed up with any
of them.  Perhaps there were others like Woz who didn't find a good
partner for the business end, but there were certainly others like Jobs
who didn't pick good partners for the engineering end.

 

About two years ago I read Wozniak's autobiography, "iWoz", which I much
enjoyed.  From reading the book, it is quite obvious that Jobs and
Wozniak both have major personality flaws . . . yet I am pretty sure I
would enjoy knowing Woz personally, and wouldn't enjoy knowing Jobs.
This book also gave me some perspective on their respective roles at
Apple, and Apple's role in the birth of the computer industry.  The key
to remember is that it was the Apple II that made Apple and
revolutionized the computer industry.  There were many hobbyist
computers available at the time, but the Apple II was the breakout hit.
It may be self-serving hype, but Wozniak claimed that what set the Apple
II apart was the fact that it could be easily expanded and that this
allowed other companies to offer peripherals - to the point that Apple
was able to cut back on advertising, because every computer mag had
dozens of ads for peripherals that prominently mentioned the Apple II.

 

Woz also noted that he had played a pivotal role in the development of
the Apple II, and had specifically fought Jobs and other business types
to spend the few extra cents per computer that allowed them to be
expanded.  This story checks out, because we know that his influence at
Apple diminished afterwards, that Apple pursued an all-proprietary
business model, and that this all-proprietary model drove them to the
brink of bankruptcy despite having an excellent product.  The fact that
the IBM/Microsoft duo prevailed with a much inferior operating system
but open hardware suggests that Wozniak's assessment is fair.

 

This all suggests that it was Wozniak, not Jobs, who can claim primary
credit.

 


>> Whether the Kindle will replace paper -

>No. Might limit its use eventually but there are far more people out
>there who print every thing the get in email to read than care to
>spend 400 bucks on an electronic reader. Perhaps after a couple of
>generations move through with cheaper, more widely accessible readers
>available you will see a serious decline in the printed book. However,
>I think the move will be to print-on-demand technologies. Something
>I'm looking forward to.

I have to disagree.  Except for specialty items and possibly receipts, I
expect paper to disappear.  We are now seeing only the beginning of the
end of paper.  Until the Kindle, there was no screen technology
available that was as easy to read or as portable as a book.  Now there
is, and I expect the changes will gradually occur.  However, it may
require some better backup programs and more open standards.  The
current combination of kludgy backup programs, digital rights
management, and unsophisticated users result in lots of unnecessary
printing.  I expect this to change at some time in the future as more
knowledgeable users demand full access to their own property and fast,
easy-to-use backup programs.  Trends are already heading that way.


>Sad though, the end of the 1st edition collector...

What I said about "specialty products". . .  ;-)

 

 

 

Alan

 

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